NFL at the Midpoint

Strange NFL season all around. Some teams are world beaters, some look like they're trotting out high schoolers. Seriously, I've never seen such a large disparity between the top and bottom teams; it almost feels like an NBA season, not an NFL season. There's not much to say, so I'll just reflect on my multitude of horrible predictions and (incorrectly) forecast the future. Seems like the perfect time to bust out the power rankings.

Just Happy not to lose by 50

32. Cleveland Browns: What were the Browns thinking? Everybody knew that Eric Mangini was a coaching failure who only looked good as a coordinator because he coached under Bill Belicheck. He runs the Browns with a CIA-level of secrecy to make him appear like a know-all dictator and mask the fact that he has no idea what the hell he's doing. The Browns have the worst front office, the worst players and the worst coach.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: See, once in a blue moon I am right about some things! Todd Haley only got this job because he was blessed with great offensive talent in Arizona and is a hall of famer in terms of screaming mindlessly at his players on national television. Too bad the Chiefs are finding out that he can't coach. And I said all along that Matt Cassel was a product of the situation. He played with great offensive talent around him, and his stats were inflated because the Patriots basically used the same shotgun-spread passing game that allows Texas Tech Quarterbacks to throw for 100000000 yards per game (I'm not saying that there's anything wrong with using the spread in the NFL. I wish coaches would use it more, the only reason they don't is because they're arrogant and refuse to believe that supposed "pro-style" offenses aren't perfect. Still, you have to remember that the spread inflates your passing yards and total touchdowns). Anyone who actually watched Cassel in games knows that he can't make any tough throws and is just a product of the ESPN hype machine.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Not a good sign when your team gets better after going to the creamsickle unis. On the bright side, Josh Freeman looks like he can be a poor man's Daunte Culpepper. Too bad you can't be that positive about any of the other players or coaches on the team.

29. St. Louis Rams: My prediction: This year they draft a franchise quarterback like Sam Bradford or Jake Locker, and in two years Spagnoulo will turn around this operation. Right now they need to sell high on Steven Jackson, because his name value is still pretty far ahead of his actual value.

28. Detroit Lions: There's hope, and there are some nice pieces in place. Like Jim Schwartz, who looks like a terrific hire. Or Calvin Johnson, the best wideout in the league. One problem: their "franchise quarterback" looks like a total fraud. He hasn't been productive at all, culminating in that 5-interception effort against Seattle. I gave Stafford a first-round grade last April but was always a tad skeptical. He was always decent at Georgia but nothing special; he never once dominated a big time game against a quality opponent. The only reason why his draft stock was so high is because CBS (who loves to hype up SEC players) and ESPN (who loves to hype up everyone) made such a big deal about him for no reason. Mel Kiper was the worst offender: He argued passionately for Stafford only because Kiper pegged him as the chosen one in high school and didn't want to be wrong. Sorry Detroit, you deserve better.

27. Oakland Raiders: Wow, someone must have been drugging me up when I predicted Oakland for the playoffs. I don't think I've ever been more wrong about any players than I have been about the Raiders' last three first round draft picks. Jamarcus Russell looks more like the perfect participant on "The Biggest Loser: NFL Edition" than he looks like an NFL quarterback. Darren McFadden is falling a tad short of my prediction that he would become Ladainian Tomlinson 2.0. As for Darius Heyward-Bey, it looks like I underestimated just how much his hands of stone would hold him back. Of course, how can anyone succeed when the Owner is actually proud of the fact that he employs a head coach with a history of beating his wives and coldcocking an assistant. Wait, is it too late to move this team down the rankings?

26. Buffalo Bills: Umm...not really much to say. They're have the 26th best roster, the 26th best coaching, and they play like the 26th best team every single week.

25. Washington Redskins: Jason Campbell will be made the scapegoat for all of Washington's problems, and If I were running an NFL team I would try to steal him away from the Redskins. Consider his circumstances: Going back to college he's had to learn 8 different offenses in the last 9 years. He's never played with above average offensive talent surrounding him (half the time his receivers don't come to play because they've already quit on the coach), his clueless and meddlesome owner goes out of his way to undermine the guy, and he's had to deal with terrible coaching the last two seasons. Despite that he keeps putting up above average seasons; he's got intelligence, character, strong work ethic, a cannon for an arm, good athleticism and mobility, and underrated accuracy and field awareness. As for the rest of the team...let's just move on.

Muddling in the Middle

24. Carolina Panthers: Decent running game, not much else. If I needed someone to throw three picks without intentionally playing poorly, Jake Delhomme would be my guy.

23. Chicago Bears: ESPN will look at Jay Cutler's passing yards and deduce that he's the greatest quarterback ever. I say he's Jeff George 2.0. You fall in love with his rocket arm and brashness, but anyone that has seen any Bears games knows that he kills his team with his horrendous decision making and complete lack of leadership. In the offseason I said that the Cutler trade hurt both teams, because the Broncos were downgrading their talent at the quarterback position while the Bears were giving up way to much for a guy with such a lousy track record of winning. I'll admit, I was half-wrong; the Broncos weren't necessarily downgrading because they knew that Orton would greatly increase his productivity now that he had a much better supporting cast. If you would rather have Jay Cutler on your team than Kyle Orton, I don't know what to tell you. In other news, I've been a Lovie Smith fan for a while, but it looks like its time for him to go, as the Bears have clearly regressed each of the last three years, especially on defense (which is supposed to be his specialty).

22. Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson is a top-5 back in the league. Amazing speed, acceleration, quickness, vision, and underrated power and hands. A lot of guys come into the league with a ton of speed and athleticism, but this is one of the workout wonders whose insane measurables actually translate to the field. He's really that much better than everybody else. right now the Titans aren't playing all that well, and they have no shot at the playoffs, but I think they can make a season-ending run and build momentum for next season. Vince Young will show everyone that he can play at a high level; I don't care what his stats say, put on the tape and the guys has always produced; the bottom line is that he makes plays and wins games.

21. Seattle Seahawks: Looks like last year wasn't a fluke. The Seahawks need to find a quarterback and left tackle of the future. On the bright side, the seahawks have done a good job of drafting on the defensive side of the ball (Aaron Curry, Leroy Hill, and Lofa Tatupu will be wreaking havoc as the best linebacking corps in the league for a long time), and they have two first rounders this April, so the rebuilding should go smoothly.

20. San Francisco 49ers: Tough times for the niners. They finally found a good coach, but the cupboard is so bare that its hard to forsee them being any good within the next 2-3 years. Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Frank Gore, and maybe Vernon Davis are the only above average players on the roster. To top it off, Michael Crabtree already looks like a bust in the making. Coming out of college there were questions about his route running skills and his ability to adjust to a less wacky offense, and when you watch the niners play its clear that he's struggling to adjust to the pro game. Throw in the fact that he's now been exposed as an arrogant diva, as well as the success rate (or lack thereof) for prospects that take their holdouts into the season (see Russell, Jamarcus), and I wouldn't be surprised if Crabtree is making backup money in 5 years.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars: Move along, there's nothing interesting here.

18. New York Jets: Future looks bright; Rex Ryan can coach, Mark Sanchez can play, and the team drafts well enough that it should be able to fill in the talent gaps. For now...meh.

17. Green Bay Packers: Poor Aaron Rodgers; He plays behind the worst offensive line in the league, and everyone thinks that Brett Favre is better because he manages to put up inferior stats despine getting better protection and having more talent at the skill positions (you gotta love ESPN's logic; I guess by the same token Ray Allen must be better than Dwayne Wade since he puts up worse numbers despite playing on a better team and receiving far less defensive attention). Imagine how good Rodgers would be if he played for a real team (and imagine how bad the Packers would be without him).

16. Baltimore Ravens: Exposed as frauds in the last few weeks. That vaunted defense is now extremely porous (Ray Lewis needs to stop doing that dance when offensive linemen are taking turns handing it to him on every play; I still can't believe the Ravens spent their money on Lewis and not Bart Scott), and their chances or winning depend on Joe Flacco being able to pass for 400 yards per game despite playing with below average receivers...sounds like something straight out of Todd Haley's playbook!

15. Houston Texans: Call me cynical, but I still don't see this as a playoff team. I never bought into all the preseason hype, and I'm not convinced that the defense has really improved that much. Sure, they could make the playoffs, but even then they would probably fall behind by 24 points, score 17 in garbage time, and fuel the same "those Texans look like a real sleeper next year" talk that hasn't exactly come to fruition the last two years.

14. Miami Dolphins: Established that the Wildcat is not a gimmick, and its here to stay. Other than that, not too much to like.

13. New York Giants: I know, they probably should be rank lower, but for whatever reason I can't jump off the bandwagon (translation: you shouldn't bet on the Giants again). Most people assume that Plaxico's absence is the problem but in reality the receiving corp has been just as productive (if not more productive) as those of recent years. For whatever reason the defense has had a huge dropoff; None of the free agent acquisitions have panned out, Kenny Phillips and Aaron Ross (two absolute studs in the secondary) have been injured, and the usual stars (Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, Antonio Pierce) haven't been nearly as good as they were in previous years. Out of all my predictions, I may have missed just as badly on the Giants as I did on any other team.

12. Arizona Cardinals: Enjoy it while you can, this is a one and done team in the playoffs It does bear noting that Beanie Wells looks like a perennial all-pro. Someone please explain to me how 30 players (and two other running backs) were picked ahead of this guy.

11. San Diego Chargers: The luckiest team on the planet. Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson are overrated, Shawne Merriman is still a one trick pony who's not all that great at that one trick, the secondary is a mess, and of course, Norv Turner is still the coach. They're making their annual November run, but this year I think they'll fall short. They'll be the 6th seed and be lucky not to lose by fewer than 30 points in the 1st round of playoffs.

Don't Get Carried Away

10. Atlanta Falcons: Clearly I underestimated them, but I think that the media is going overboard with its praise of Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Look, this is a good team, but until the defense improves the ceiling is second round and out.

9. Minnesota Vikings: I'm continually amazed at how overrated one team can be. Here's my analysis of the Vikings, ESPN Style: "Brett Favre is the greatest quarterback ever! Brett Favre is amazing! Brett Favre deserves all the credit for Minnesota's success! Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre!"

OK, I'll be serious now. Getting Favre was the right move; he's an average quarterback who makes the Vikings better because of his sheer competency. He's better than I thought he would be, but there are plenty of other far less heralded quarterbacks who would do just as good of a job (if not a better job) in this situation. As for the rest of the team, Peterson is a stud (although its getting to the point where he becomes overrated because people go overboard on his talents), and I was dead wrong when I said that the vaunted offensive and defensive lines wouldn't be as good as advertised. Pat Williams will stay good for a while because two-gap nose tackles have a long shelf life. Kevin Williams and Steve Hutchinson are having nice bounce-back years. Because the two Williams are playing so well, they cover up for Jared Allen's deficiencies against the run and have allowed him to have a season for the ages as a pass rusher. But I'm convinced that this team is going to crash and burn; the secondary is awful, and eventually Favre will have to actually make some plays and do more than just throw check downs (something he won't be able to do).

8. Philadelphia Eagles: That was pretty pathetic last Sunday Night. Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews haven't been anywhere near as good as they were hyped up to be (although Lesean McCoy looks like a future star), and McNabb has struggled. Good team, definitely not elite.

7. Dallas Cowboys: Looks like I underestimated the talent level; Miles Austin is playing at a Pro Bowl level; he's twice as good as T.O. was last year, and with 1/100000000000 of the headache. Everyone makes a big deal about Roy Williams not being able to fill the number one receiver role, but what does it matter if Austin can be the top gun? The defense is good, but the offensive line will prove to be the weak link. Still, Dallas should win the division and a playoff game.

Great Story, Very Interesting as a Super Bowl Dark Horse

6. Cincinnatti Bengals: I would move them up, but the injuries to Antwan Odom and Chris Henry will take their toll. Still, its time to appreciate what the Bengals have done. A lot of knuckleheads (like me) were calling for Marvin Williams to be fired, but credit the Bengals for standing pat recognizing that coaching instability will never help the organization succeed. Carson Palmer is back to being a top-5 quarterback, the offensive line looks good as does the secondary and linebacking corps. The rookie class has been really impressive: Rey Mauluga and Michael Johnson were both dominant college players, but teams outsmarted themselves and made up really bad reasons not to draft them. Rey Mauluga was so good that it must have been a mirage, so he slipped to the second round. Michael Johnson was a physical specimen who was good enough to start for 4 years and had 9 sacks his final year, but apparently he was soft and inconsistent. All those guys produced in college and are now producing in the NFL; funny how that works.

But Cedric Benson is the best story of the season. I trashed him, the Bears trashed him, the city of Chicago trashed him, the entire NFL trashed him. Well guess what? It turns out that he can play and is a legit MVP candidate. I didn't see this coming at all; i mean, he always showed up to camp out of shape, he never played through pain (not even in the super bowl), he had two arrests for drunk boating in the span of 2 weeks, and in general whenever I watched him play he didn't look all that talented and didn't seem to have any burst or explosiveness (and I mean absolutely none at all). But maybe the situation was the problem. His coach and his teammates had no respect for him from day one (apparently his teammates used to try to injure him in training camp so that Thomas Jones would play); i mean, how can you succeed in an environment where everyone hates your guts and always tries to undermine you? These are the kinds of guys I love, guys who play with chips on their shoulders and who take pride in sticking it to all the teams who said that they weren't good enough. I have no idea how he's not the MVP; he's been the savior to the Bengals offense, and its surreal to see him put the team on his back every single time in the 4th quarter; he always comes through in every big moment, and no other player has elevated his team more. I would send him a personal letter of apology, but I was too busy doing the same for the next team...

5. Denver Broncos: I've got a lot of words to eat, so here's my open letter to the Broncos


Dear Josh McDaniels,
I'm sorry. I ripped you the day you got hired by the Broncos, I ripped you on draft day, I ripped you at the start of the season. I spent a lot of time ripping you, but like any sports fan worth his/her salt, I'm willing to admit when I was wrong. And I couldn't have been more wrong than I was about the Denver Broncos.

I was wrong when I thought the offense would take a step back by replacing Jay Cutler with Kyle Orton. It turns out the offense is much better now the signal caller is someone who actually knows how to take care of the football and make smart reads as opposed to trying to make all sorts of ridiculous throws and turn it into the Jay Cutler show. Cutler has never won anything in his college or NFL career but still gets praised as if he were some sort of second coming of John Elway. Kyle Orton does nothing but win yet still gets called a "game manager" and average quarterback. You were smart enough to know that Orton was better, I (and a whole lot of people who are still in denial) wasn't.

I said that the defense would be trash. I mean, all those guys were either veterans who didn't appear to have anything left in the tank, or they were career underachievers who had never succeeded anywhere else. But you and Mike Nolan have turned this into a stout unit that shuts down the opponent because it plays hard, plays smart, hustles, and doesn't care about who gets the credit. Its just 11 guys that come to every game supremely prepared and conditioned, play hard every single second of every single snap, and don't care about making highlight reel plays and instead focus on making the right play. I still say that they don't have a lot of talent, but it doesn't matter because they want it more than anyone else. It should be like that for every defense, but 9 times out of 10 teams will use a lack of talent as an excuse for a pathetic defensive effort. So kudos.

The most ironic part? I should have seen this coming. As I explained above, I love guys that play with chips on their shoulders. 10 time out of 10 I'd much rather have a hungry, motivated guy who's been rejected by other teams and told that he's not good enough as opposed to a supremely gifted, highly paid blue chipper who doesn't have any motivation because he's always had everything handed to him on a silver platter. Take Elvis Dumervil: The University of Miami said that he wasn't good enough, so he went to Louiville. He ran circles around offensive lineman in college, even notching over 20 sacks in his senior season and proving that he was more than good enough to play for Miami (which is ironic, because usually the U also loves these types of players). Still, NFL scouts also said that he wouldn't be good enough to play at the next level (apparently his disappointing combine outweighed all those sacks in college). So he got drafted in the 4th round, and now every Sunday he runs circles around NFL offensive linemen (the same guys scouts said he would get dominated by despite all those sacks in college) and gets to stick it to all the teams that said that his size would prevent him from making it in the NFL. He's better than a lot of highly gifted lineman because he works and plays harder and smarter, period. This is the kind of player that I love rooting for, and your team is filled with these guys at every position, yet I didn't see it.

I messed up, but now I've learned not to doubt you. I don't care if the Broncos finish 6-10, this season was a success because you showed the world that you know what you're doing; you stuck to your guns through the draft, through the Brandon Marshall fiasco, through the whole season, and its official that you know how to run a team. Congrats, and plese accept my apology.
sincerely,
Arjun Chandrasekhar


The Favorites

4. New England Patriots: Not nearly as impressive as everyone thinks. The defense (especially the secondary) has holes, they struggle to get pressure against good teams, they can't run the ball, and the passing game is a tad inconsistent. Everyone just assumes that they're good because its Belicheck and Brady, but I'm not drinking the kool-aid until they convincingly beat a really good team.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Top-5 quarterback, top-5 defense, and finally the running game and offensive line have improved and stopped holding the team back (I though Rashard Mendenhall looked like an underachiever because he seemed soft and had fumbling issues, but right now he's one of the five best backs in the league and looks like a real star). They have the swagger of the defending champions, they're good enough to beat anyone in any playoff situation, and they have just as good a chance to win the super bowl as anyone. And that's all that matters.

2. Indianapolis Colts: We always knew that Peyton Manning was one of the top-8 quarterbacks of all time...but wow, I had no idea he was this good. He's making pretty damn good case for being the best quarterback ever. The best comparison I can think of is Lebron James last year; both teams look like barely above average teams on paper (even if you include Peyton and Lebron), but because Peyton and Lebron are so incredible and elevate their teammates at least 5 levels, both teams win way more than they have any business winning. The only problem is, Cleveland ran into Orlando, a team with a its own dominant superstar (Dwight Howard) and so many weapons and an unconventional offense that even Lebron couldn't handle them all by himself. And the Colts will meet their kryptonite...

1. New Orleans Saints: Great offense, great defense, Drew Brees = phenomenol, Darren Sharper = defensive player of the year. They can beat you in a grind it out or an air it out game, a shoot out or slugfest, come from behind or tightly contested battle...they just win. And that's why they're the best team, and that's that.

Super Bowl: Saints 37, Colts 24