NBA at the Midpoint

OK, I know the all-star game comes a little bit after the midway point, but let's face it, the all-star game is the time that the teams regroup, circle the wagons, and start going balls to the wall for the playoffs. Perfect time to check the temperature on all the teams. And let's just say the only thing that I predicted correctly was that I would predict a lot of things wrong. Anyways, let's pull rank!

The Lebron Sweepstakes

30. New Jersey Nets: Forget John Wall, Lebron is the only guy that can save this mess. And I'm becoming more and more convinced that this could be Lebron's destination. Think about it: James Bond-esque owner, and the rumors are that Jerry Colangelo (the team U.S.A. mogul and the most beloved owner among the players in history) and Mike Kryzewjski (team U.S.A.'s head coach) are joining the fray. When you consider that they have a top-3 pick in a good draft, Brook Lopez (Pau Gasol 2.0), Devin Harris (either a top-10 point guard or a highly valuable trade chip), and the cap space to sign another decent player, and that's a solid foundation. As for this year.....10 wins might be a miracle.

The John Wall Sweepstakes

29. Golden State Warriors: I'll admit I was wrong about Stephen Curry. I underrated him, everyone else overrated him. He's a better defender than I expected, as well as being the lights out passer and shooter that we expected. Looks like he'll end up being a poor man's Mark Price. The rest of the team...is still the Warriors. The most painful thing is that Anthony Randolph would be a star on almost any other team, he's been so screwed up by this toxic mess. Please basketball gods, let him be traded to a contender where, like Gilbert Arenas, Antwan Jamison, Stephen Jackson, Chris Webber, and so many other former Warriors, he'll flourish.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves: You have to wonder about the direction of this franchise. They're trying to trade Al Jefferson, one of the three or four guys in this league that commands an automatic double team in the low post. They signed Ramon Sessions to an absolute bargain contract only to stash him away on the bench. They drafted Ricky Rubio even though the buyout rules prevented them from being able to bring him over here. They decided to keep Jonny Flynn rather than Ty Lawson on draft night. The result: the 3rd worst team in the league. I guess there's hope for salvation if Rubio comes over here, they get a top-3 pick (perhaps take Evan Turner), and they find a true center (big Al would be unstoppable at his natural power forward position, and K-love is better suited for the bench). Still, lots of question marks.

27. Detroit Pistons: Wow, looks like they overpaid Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. Who knew these signings would flop? Oh wait, everyone in the blogosphere. Joe Dumars is an excellent GM, but this wasn't his finest hour, especially giving CV 10 mil per year. What kills them isn't the fact that these players' production won't match the contracts but rather the fact that these contracts will keep them stuck in neutral and tie up almost all of their cap space. And there is no way they're winning a playoff series with Air Gordon as The Guy.

26. Washington Wizards: The Caron Butler trade represents them committing to rebuilding about 2 years too late. Jamison's probably gone too. Now consider this: let's say they void Gilbert's contract, trade Jamison (and possibly Mike Miller) for expirings; maybe they have the cap space to pursue Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Come on, Washington has a basketball history to rival that of Queens, Motown, ATL, and Compton, it has Obama...just maybe? In any case this should be interesting. (By the way, here's my take on Arenas: No doubt he deserved punishment, but voiding his contract seems like overkill. I mean, it wasn't a loaded gun, he didn't do anything malicious...he seems guilty of pure stupidity more than anyting else...is that really a $100 million mistake? It seems like the Wizards are just using this as an opportunity to atone for a moronically foolish contract that they offered him. Just pure craziness all around).

25. Indiana Pacers: The NBA, where being guaranteed 35 wins a year until 2095 happens!!!!!!!!!!! (I'll be honest, i only saw them play once against Phoenix, and here's the best analysis I can come up with: Danny Granger is a top 15 baller, Troy Murphy could be valuable on a contender, the rest of the team is garbage. They will have cap space...in 2011, when all the top 5 guys will have signed max contracts elsewhere and when there may be a lockout. Other than that, good times.)

24. New York Knicks: The best kept secrets in the league: David Lee has added to his wicked rebounding abilities: he shoots the mid-range jumper, he finished well in transition, and has good enough handles to play point-forward for stretches (And to think my Blazers used their cap space on Andre Miller instead of this guy). The Knicks have to be honest with themselves: Lebron, Wade, and Bosh are not going to the Garden, so it would not be wise to let David Lee walk away just so that you have cap space for Lebron; if a really good trade doesn't come along then they should sign him to a long-term deal (5 years, 38 million sounds right). Also, Danilo Gallinari looks like a young Peja, and the Knicks might have had a legit future if they had taken Brandon Jennings. Instead they took a stiff big man with no offensive skills. I'll admit I was wrong about Jennings because I never got to see him play and based my evaluation on his stats. But how did the Knicks scouts miss this? Shame on the wealthiest basketball franchise for having inadequate international scouting.

23. Philadelphia 76ers: If i'm the sixers I would trade Iguodala away if could get a legit NBA starter back and find someone to take on Brand's hideous contract. Dalembert's contract isn't such an albatross since it expires in 2011 and Dalembert is a decent role player. But they're going nowhere with Iggy as the alpha dog, and I'd love to see him flourish on a contender. But hey, at least Iverson is scoring points (not that it really helps them win games).

22. New Orleans Hornets: CP3 just went down, so unless Darren Collison starts playing out of his head this is a sinking ship, both on the court and on the revenue stream. How much longer until David West gets traded 5 cents on the dollar just so someone takes Okafor's contract off their hands?

Seeing the light at the End of the Tunnel

21. Miami Heat: Terrible now, hemorraging benjamins, and playing like a group of d-leaguers surrounding one hall of famer (oh wait, that's exactly what they are). So why are they here? Because they have a lottery pick in a decent draft, a good asset in Michael Beasly, and the ability to sign one max free agent to pair with D-Wade, which I expect them to do.

20. Sacramento Kings: Wow, did you see Tyreke Evans against the Knicks the other day? My goodness. I knew he had big game chops, but who knew he had that kind of killer instinct in him? The more I see Tyreke against NBA competition, the more I think I actually may have underrated him, if that's even possible. I thought he'd be a poor man's Dwayne Wade, a great slasher and defender with the ability to play some point, but no better than a number two guy. Now I think he has the temprament and demeanor to be an alpha dog and lead a team to the promised land. His jump shot will get better, and he has the necessary skills and mental edge to be a franchise guy. Also, let me talk about Omri Cassipi since I haven't had the chance yet: he's better than I thought. Way way better. He's not just an energy guy, he's a legitimately skilled passer and shooter, tough hard-nosed defender, good running the floor, generally more talented than given credit for. Watch out for the Kings as a sleeper next year.

19. Los Angeles Clippers: Dark horses for the Lebron sweepstakes, and even if they don't get him there's some hope. Baron Davis will continue to get better the closer he gets to his contract year (and Lord knows how incredible he can be when in shape and motivated), Blake Griffin should be a double double machine (assuming he doesn't wreck his knees by the age of 25...which is probably 45% likely on this franchise), and Kaman....well, at least he was named to the all-star (that's gotta count for something, even if he didn't even come close to earning it). As for this year, the playoffs are a decent possibility, and if I'm the lakers or nuggets I wouldn't want to risk playing against Baron.

18. Chicago Bulls: This year is a wash because of the terrible coaching, but they should be able to lure at least one tier two free agent. I know some team will take on Kirk Hinrich's contract because he's so useful, and in the process that'll allow the bulls to rid themselves of about $9 million in salary. By the way, in my last post I was a little hard on Derrick Rose. I think he's finally settled in on his career path, and it looks like he'll be Baron Davis 2.0, only if Baron was in shape every season. If they make the playoffs they'll be one and done, but next year they should be contenders.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: The Jennings-Bogut era looks better and better by the second. Bogut is an all-star level center and the perfect big man for the new era, and Jennings is just a flat out stud that will dominate for the next 10 years. The thing I love about him is that he's a wonderful playmaker but can also take games over as a scorer, and when all's said and done he will be a perennial top-10 guy in the league.

Stuck in Neutral

16. Houston Rockets: a lock for first round and out. Like I have been saying, I love watching them, but unlike in the NFL, in the NBA you can't win with a collection of above average players; you need at least one or two highly talented guys who can create shots against anybody in big moments. The Rockets simply don't have enough star power. Here's something i'm wondering: why are they so averse to letting Tracy McGrady join the team? I'm obviously not an insider on the situation, and maybe t-mac is such a cancer that his presence is more deleterious than helpful, but I think that in terms of basketball he's the right risk to take. Tracy is one of the most talented and skilled players to ever play, and if he even regains 75% of his old form he'll be a potent offensive option, which is exactly the piece that these rockets are missing. They have all the perfect complementary guys, and if McGrady can return to being at least a semi-explosive scorer then this could be a scary team. If not, then just let his contract expire and go sign a big free agent.

15. Toronto Raptors: The good news: Love their offensive execution...Bargnanni will never justify being picked number 1 overall, but he has added a decent low post game to complement his perimeter skills...Bosh is playing like an MVP candidate and top-8 baller...Demar Derozan is competent. The bad news: Hedo Turkoglu has one of the 10 worst contracts in the league...they would struggle to defend an AAU team...Jose Calderon's career has fallen off a cliff...Bosh will wear a different uniform next year.

Super Intriguing Dark Horses

14. Charlotte Bobcats: I love watching this team; they win by playing hard every night and defending like hell. Can they win a playoff series? Probably not. But it's nice to see a team win without a maxed out superstar.

13. Seattle Supersonics: Kevin Durant is a full-fledged franchise player...i mean, how impressive is it that they'll make the playoffs with this little depth and size? I don't think he's in that Lebron-Kobe-Duncan level of superstars, but he's in the next tier, and this team will win once it uses its cap space and brings in another blue chipper to run with Durant. I do have one reservation: why didn't they take Ricky Rubio? Maybe i'm underestimating the difficulty of his buyout, but Rubio was just so superior to James Harden as a prospect that I don't understand it. Harden's a decent scorer, but his future is probably as a 6th man, whereas Rubio looks like he'll be a special point guard, the perfect guy to set up Durant for ridiculously easy buckets and get him easy points by hitting him in the perfect scoring spots on the court. The Sonics will regret passing up the Spanish Sensation (and if not him, then they probably should have taken Tyreke Evans, a suy who can defend and ease the huge scoring burden on Durant).

12. Memphis Grizzlies: The surprise of the year and by far the best story. Zach Randolph has is finally behaving himself and making good on his vast potential (seriously, Z-bo is the best low post scorer in the league). O.J. Mayo and maybe Rudy Gay are future all-stars, Marc Gasol is the perfect complement to Randolph with his defense and rebounding. They have competent point guard play, two good perimeter scorers, a low post stud, and two excellent rebounders (I'm counting Thabeet, although at this point it certainly looks possible that he might be out of the league in 5 years)...i wouldn't want to see these guys in the playoffs.

Fading Fast

11. Phoenix Suns: Too gimmicky for this success to keep up. I could not possibly be more impressed by Nash's career year, but assuming Stoudemire gets traded, this team will probably be one and done. Expect the losses to start piling up.

10. San Antonio Spurs: Time to finally give up on Richard Jefferson. I can't explain it: at 29, it makes no sense that he would have lost all his physical abilities, and there's no way that he spontaneously lost all the basketball skills that he had just a year ago. Maybe it's x's and o's, or maybe he really has deteriorated as a basketball player, but what looked like the safest offseason pickup just months ago has failed miserably. There's no way around it: the spurs are done contending unless they make a HUGE splash at the trade deadline.

9. Boston Celtics: This one I didn't see coming either. When Rasheed was fat early in the season I assumed he would just play himself into shape all would be well. Well, he's still fat, and at this point it's too late to just play your way into shape by the time the playoffs roll around. Looks like the Celtics shoulda pursued Trevor Ariza, because 'Sheed's contract has become an albatross. Rondo has turned into Gary Payton 2.0, and Kendrick Perkins should be all-defense first team. The problems: KG is about 70% of what he used to be physically, and while he's still a good help defender he's not the all-world force that he used to be. Ray Allen is barely an above average starter and is shooting at an abominable rate by his standards. If the Celtics can get someome like Kirk Hinrich or Kevin Martin then move them into the next category, but for now there's no way they win a title.

Good, not good enough

8. Utah Jazz: Deron has surpassed, or at least equaled Chris Paul in my book - he's a superior defender and every bit the playmaker. Kirilenko has made a nice recovery (he's still being paid 5 times what he's worth), and Boozer is having a typical Boozer season. All told, they look like a good bet 2nd round and out. If I were them I would trade Boozer for good young assets and build around D-wil and their lottery pick this summer.


Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon

7. Portland Trail Blazers: Everyone has written them off, and it's true that with both their starting centers out they have no chance to win a title. But hear me out: when they get healthy they'll go small and surprise a lot of teams. Not too many teams can match up with a lineup of bayless-roy-webster/rudy-outlaw-aldridge. This year doesn't matter, but here are some developments: Aldridge's ceiling has been lowered from Rasheed Wallace minus the personality issues to a more athletic Rashard Lewis (which isn't bad, but not what the Blazers were hoping for)...Bayless is an absolute beast, and one has to wonder what the hell he was doing buried behind Steve Blake on the depth chart last year...if they can trade Blake and Outlaw for a blue chipper then it's worth it...I'm finally convinced that Brandon Roy is a true franchise player around whom you can build a title team. Keeping this team afloat has been as impressive as anyone else's work this year.


6. Orlando Magic: That's right, I finally downgraded them from a contender to a sleeper. I'm very disappointed (Dwight, Rashard, and Jameer have all taken steps back), but given their talent it'd be insane to simply dismiss them as a title contender. Vince hasn't been nearly as good as I thought (although much much better than Turkoglu), but that game against the Hornets showed that he still has the potential to be a difference maker. My guess is that they'll turn it around in time and be a tough out in the playoffs, but they've lost their status as East favorites.

5. Atlanta Hawks: Defense, rebounding, athleticism...watch out.

The Contenders

4. Dallas Mavericks: The Caron Butler trade gives them a legitimate chance to beat the Lakers. Since Kobe has become more of a power player and has lost some explosiveness, Butler and Marion should be able to guard him. Also, getting Haywood gives them another interior defender, so they have the size and length to go against anybody. Offensively they have two excellent playmakers 3 guys who can score one-on-one against anybody. They're not the favorites, but now the mavs are an extremely interesting finals pick.

3. Denver Nuggets: It certainly bodes well that they destroyed the Lakers at home and then won in L.A. without Carmelo. In a playoff series I'd take the Lakers, but it looks like the nuggets certainly have enough talent to win a championship. They could stand to add a true 7-footer, but as it is I love their chances, especially with Carmelo making such a convincing case for MVP and consistently performing like a top-5 guy should.

The Favorites
2. Los Angeles Lakers: If healthy they're the best bet to win the west. Here are some of my observations from them this season:

• Ron Artest hasn't been as good as everyone else predicted, and not as bad as I predicted. The positives: No more a ball stopper, has fit in perfectly to the triangle...AMAZING at creating steals this year, even by his standards; there are at least 5-7 times a game that he creates a steal for himself or someone else because he has such strong yet quick hands...decent at defeding perimeter players on post ups. The negatives: lacks the quickess to stay with more explosive perimeter players...highly inconsistent 3-point shooter...never gets the chance to showcase his biggest advantage over Ariza (increased offensive repertoire, especially while posting up smaller perimeter guys) because there are so many other scoring options on the Lakers. The bottom line: the Lakers should've resigned Ariza because they have enough scorers that Artest's superior offensive game doesn't compensate for the worse defense and increased craziness (which will show up at some point this season). Still, Artest won't be the one derailing their title hopes.
• Pau Gasol is still terrific player, but not as dominant as he was last year. A year ago he would punish teams that didn't double him, scoring at will when put one-on-one against anybody. This year: he's playing more like Memphis Pau, a very skilled scorer and passer, but able to be taken advantage of by the Duncans and Garnetts of the world.
• Lamar Odom, you do know that the season started, right? Come on, as Mark Jackson would say, "you're better than that!"
• Why does Shannon Brown ever get playing time over Derek Fisher? Brown is superior in every single way. The knock on him is that he's not a true point guard, but why does that matter in the Triangle? I've heard that you get diminishing returns if you play him more than five or six minutes at a time, but if that's the case why not play him in tandem with Jordan Farmar? The point is, Brown is terrific, Fisher should never play.
• Kobe should sit, they need him in May and June, not now.
• The Lakers have a good chance at repeating, and all the better if they decide to play Brown more and/or get Kirk Hinrich.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Of all the places I missed the boat (an lord knows I have been wrong my fair share of times), I missed it the worst here. Cleveland's roster is loaded with talent, even if there aren't other superstars; Mo Williams is actually playing like the All-Star he was declared to be last year. Shaq is not washed up, as he can still score in the post and defend the Dwight Howards and Andrew Bynums of the world without help. Anyways, at this point they have to be the favorites, and more so if they add Amare Stoudemire of Antwan Jamison. By the way, I've never been a big Stoudemire fan (plays no defense, no post skills, inconsistent jumper, his production has been inflated by Steve Nash) but I think it could work in Cleveland for a few reasons: first, Lebron is every bit the playmaker that Nash is, so Amare would still be good in Cleveland. Second, remember how unstoppable he was when Phoenix traded for Shaq and moved Amare to his natural power forward position? Well, guess who plays center in Cleveland? Third, I think he could become an average defender on a team that stress defense, and even if not he's still a good pickup because the Cavs are so good defensively that they can afford to sacrifice some in order to pick up a scorer like Amare. But even if they stand pat they finally look like they've surrounded Lebron with enough talent to win a title. Last year I knew they weren't good enough because they couldn't beat any of the top teams. This year: They swept the Lakers and have dominated the Magic and Celtics. They don't have any star power after Lebron, but they have so much depth and so many parts that fit together so perfectly, that this can only be described as a perfectly oiled machine. They have the MVP (Lebron, who has done the impossible: shattered his own lofty standards as a player), the defensive player of the year (Varejao), and against the Lakers their twin towers look (Shaq + Z) is clearly effective. Lebron has completely silenced the best-player debate (not that anyone other than the brainless portion of the Laker fans were arguing for Kobe), and this summer he will win a ring and finally silence Skip Bayless, Bill Plaschke, and every other detractor that mindlessly nitpicks him.