NFL Draft Preview Part I: Overrated/Underrated Prospects

I originally started this blog so I could make awesome mock drafts. Last year I managed to make mocks, only they weren't so awesome. This year i've figured out my priorities: i'm not too concerned about reading mock drafts predicting where the players will go - i can watch the actual draft for that. No, i'd rather read opinions on all the prospects and whom the teams should take. That's why this year, while i may or may not do a mock, my focus will be on the next three posts in which I will break down what I think of all the top prospects. Eventually I'll name my top 32 prospects (one for every pick in the first round), but i'll start with the later round prospects that i feel are really overrated and underrated. And we'll start with a couple of gators whose draft positions should probably be flip-flopped.....

Overrated: DE Carlos Dunlap (Florida)

I can't believe anyone would ever consider taking Dunlap in the first three rounds. That would be a colossal waste of a pick. Let's start with the football related issues. Dunlap's production isn't all that great; he's get some sacks, but he disappears on 75% of the plays. He doesn't play the run, and his only move is the speed rush. People are going ballistic over his overrated physical abilities, and while he is moderately athletic for a guy of his size, he isn't anything close to Mario Williams or Julius Peppers in terms of speed and explosiveness. Based on everything on the field he's probably a 3rd rounder.

Then there's the DUI. Obviously shouldn't completely destroy one's draft stock, but this was rather troubling. It's not the fact that he was drinking that's so bad (if your at a college not named BYU, Army, Navy, or Air Force, you're drinking). It's not the fact that he drove drunk (although this certainly is cause for concern). No, it's the timing of the event that makes me seriously question his judgement and dependability. Why would you go out drinking, let alone drinking and driving, on the eve of the SEC Championship, a.k.a. the most important game of the season, of the entire deep south, and possibly of Dunlap's life? How can you make a large investment in a guy who displayed such poor judgement at such a critical time? That kind of mistake is no accident - to me it's a serious lapse in decision making and accountability. How is that not a terribly troubling character issue that should give teams reason for pause? How he is listed in any mock drafts is beyond me.

Underrated: Jermaine Cunningham

Great effort/motor, good speed off the edge, highly competetive and productive against the SEC's top competition. He'll make a fine rotation player either as a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 end.

Overrated: RB Jonathan Dwyer (Georgia Tech)

I didn't get to see too much of Dwyer in 2008, but based on everything that I read I thought he would be a Rashard Mendenhall/Jonathan Stewart type of player - that is, a big, fast, explosive back who is an absolute bowling ball in the open field. Instead I saw a guy with decent (although not great) strength, average football skills, and far below average athleticism. He's not spectacular in the open field, he doesn't break a ton of tackles, he doesn't show much explosion at all. There's nothing there to suggest that he'll be anything more than a backup, as he doesn't do anything great. His stats are inflated because of the scheme and the play of the excellent offensive line, but i'm not sold on his individual talents.

Underrated: RB/WR Dexter McCluster (Ole Miss)

Reason Number 549 why teams' draft evaluation processes are so screwed up. After the senior bowl and combine McCluster's stock rose because he supposedly displayed great athleticism, explosion, and big-play ability. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why are these talent evaluators paid to come to conclusions that any fan can reach by simply tuning in on saturdays? Why did you need to watch the combine and senior bowl to figure things out that should have been patently obvious during the season? It's not like the guy wasn't running circles around SEC defenders for years, yet for some reason NFL guys couldn't figure that out until watching him in shorts and a t-shirt. Anyways, McCluster should be a great slash player in the mold of Darren Sproles - certainly worth a mid to late 2nd round pick.

Overrated: RB Ryan Matthews (Fresno State)

Great measurables stats. But the truth is most of his production is a result of Fresno State's offensive line, which is annually among the best in the country. Matthews is a good back, just not a first rounder.

Underrated: TE Dennis Pitta (BYU)

Highly productive player for 3 years, consistently came up big for a winning team. Of course, nobody realized that until he lit it up at the combine (apparently his game film magically improved once his 40 yard dash was a tenth of a second faster than expected). I think he'll be a very solid NFL player and good value in round 3.

Overrated: OT Anthony Davis (Rutgers)

For someone who is supposedly a highly athletic pass protector, Davis's physical abilities are rather unimpressive. Poor technique, rarely plays with passion, and supposedly he has had past problems with work ethic and weight in the past. The production doesn't come close to matching the hype, both on and off the field.

Overrated: CB Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest), Dominique Franks (Oklahoma), Patrick Robinson (Florida State)

Every year there are cornerbacks with excellent physical skills but very inconsistent play. Well here's this year's crop. They'll all be drafted a round or two too early.

Overrated: Taylor Mays (USC)

Along with Dunlap, probably the biggest name on this list. 10-15 years ago Mays would've been a surefire first rounder. But the league keeps trending towards the passing game, and it's becoming more and more important for safeties to be able to cover over the top and make plays. Unfortunately Taylor Mays is the opposite of that: a big hitter who intimidates players but can't cover. To be clear, unlike guys like Roy Williams he does have good athletic ability (off the charts for that matter) and on paper should be a good cover man. Yet during his senior year it was painfully obvious that he's lost in coverage. For example, against ohio state he was brutally exposed, taking poor angles and getting burned repeatedly. Ditto for the Notre Dame game. Mays isn't fluid, he lacks ball skills (although he is a bit better than advertised in that regard), and too often goes for the big hit when he should look to break up/intercept the pass. Based on what is happening in the league, I think guys like him are becoming obselete, and I wouldn't take mays in the first two rounds. However, because he has such tantalizing physical abilities (6-3, 230 lbs, chiseled physique, 4.35 speed), some team will draft him early thinking "he's got all the tools, and with our brilliant coaching we'll turn him into a monster, just like we did with Mike Mamula, Vernon Gholston, and Jamarcus Russell" (okay i made that last part up - but you get the idea).

Underrated: Morgan Burnett (Georgia Tech)

The NFL is constantly becoming more and more of a passing league, and there's an increased emphasis on safeties with great speed, range, fluidity, instincts, and ball skills. I think Burnett is an intriguing prospect because he's such a great fit for the overall direction of the league. I could see him being one of those late round guys that ends up becoming a starter, despite some of his problems defending the run. His production was a bit underwhelming, but with good coaching he'll make some team happy.

Overrated: QB Jarrett Brown (West Virginia), Sean Canfield (Oregon State)

Did you ever watch either of these guys and think "Man, this guy is really really good, he looks like an NFL quarterback"? Me neither. Canfield baffles me: being a huge OSU fan, i watched nearly all his games. Trust me, he's not very good. Throw in the unimpressive physical tools, and I don't see how you can justify spending a pick on him.

Overrated: QB Tony Pike (Cincinnatti), WR Jordan Shipley (Texas)

Of course they looked really good in the games - they're 24 years old!!!!!!!!!!!! That's like sending me to play kickball with middle schoolers and concluding that i'm a freakishly good athlete. Both players got a lot of hype because they played on undefeated teams that saw plenty of television time, but don't be fooled. Seriously, how good would Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate be if they played in college for three more years? Would be be seeing 8 touchdown games? Would the Irish average 75 points per contest? Think about that when evaluating Pike and Shipley.