The Bigs
Kendrick Perkins vs. Andrew Bynum
On paper Bynum is probably more skilled and would have the advantage in the regular season. However, no way would Boston ever swap Perkins for Bynum. First of all, while I wouldn't call Bynum completely soft, Perkins is just so much tougher and has much more big game chops - i'd much rather go to battle with Perk. Second, Bynum looks way more injured than the Lakers are letting on - he's lost a ton of his lateral quickness (thus preventing him from being the stud defender that he can be), and he really seems to have trouble getting up and down the floor. Bynum starts pretty much every game, but the elephant in the room for the Lakers is that they're better when Bynum is off the floor because they can play faster and Gasol/Odom are able to do more of the euro-style motion plays that no other frontcourt is capable of executing. Throw in the fact that Bynum's missed significant chunks of time each of the last three seasons (in addition to missing much of his senior season in high school due to a knee injury), and I'm willing to bet that Los Angeles would like a do-over on that 65 million dollar contract that they handed out to him. As for Perkins, he's been his usual excellent self this postseason. Other than Dwight Howard, I'd say that Perkins is the best post defender in the NBA because he does such a good job of doing his work early, preventing guys from getting position deep, and keeping good leverage in the post. He'll see plenty of time guarding Gasol, and if he can shut down the spaniard that'll be huge.
Kevin Garnett vs. Pau Gasol
Up until last season, Garnett pretty much owned Gasol (well, except for this), culminating in the 2008 finals in which KG abused Pau to the point that it was just akward in game 6. Now Gasol's the dominant player in this matchup now that he's in his prime while Garnett is past his peak. To be honest, I don't think Gasol is quite as good as he was last year, when he basically scored at will when matched up one on one against anybody - he was flat out unstoppable at times. Now he's playing more like the Memphis version - wonderfully skilled big, can score with either hand using a variety of moves, capable of being soft at the wrong times (though certainly not Vince Carter), not capable of carrying the team deep in the playoffs as the alpha dog but wonderfully qualified to be a second banana. I'm not trying to dismiss his abilities, i'm just pointing out that I think some sportswriters have gotten a little carried away with him this year based on the peak season he had last year. KG, on the other hand, has really seen a dropoff from last year, presumably because that knee is worse than he's letting on and is a result of wear and tear and won't simply go away. He's still a pretty good defender (though his age shows when he's a step slow on some of his rotations and has trouble moving laterally against perimeter guys), can stick the midrange jumper, rebounds, and can still score in the post due to his length and perfect footwork. Gasol should have the upper hand (assuming he doesn't revert back to being the kleenex that we saw in the '08 finals), and if KG can even play Gasol to a draw that's a huge boon for Boston.
Lamar Odom: Still incredibly skilled, versatile, and intelligent; still incredibly inconsistent and frustrating. If he manages to show up in every game, push the tempo, stabilize the second unit, provide frontcourt flexibility when (not if) Bynum has foul problems, cause matchup nightmares (although he's not as much of a problem for the Celtics because the KG/Perk combo can easily switch between guarding Gasol/Bynum and Odom/Gasol), rebound, bring motion to the offense and carry out those unstoppable princeton/euro-style motion sets with Gasol, then the Lakers will be very tough, if impossible, to beat. But will bring it like that every night? Of course not!!!! He's Lamar Odom!!! A tiger doesn't change its stripes, and LO's still the same guy that never has three good nights in a row and spends as much time frustrating coaches for his erratic play as he does amazing them with his unique skill set. Of course he's gonna have at least two games in which he simply spots up around the three point line on offense and gets owned on the defensive glass. Ultimately I think he'll have enough good games to be the difference; just keep in mind that he's also more than capable of having enough bad games to be the difference.
Rasheed Wallace: Get ready for a week of stories about how 'Sheed is "the biggest enigma of his generation..." well newsflash everybody, there's nothing enigmatic about Rasheed Wallace. He's talented, skilled, and intelligent enough that he could have been the best player of this decade, but he didn't care/want it badly enough. He dominates every so often just to prove that he can do it but isn't motivated enough to play to his potential every night and would rather be the complementary guy. That's fine - some guys just don't have it in their mental makeups be the alpha dog that carries the team each and every night, but right now 'Sheed has to step up because he might very well be Boston's biggest X-factor and the guy that could make or break the finals in either direction. When Boston signed him in July I questioned the move because I thought Rasheed was fairly washed up, but I understood Danny Ainge's rationale behind the move - he wanted more size, length, and post-up guys. Theoretically 'Sheed could've provided those things had he not gotten fat in the offseason and refused to care at all during the season, but that's a moot point now because he's picked up his play in the postseason (he's still clearly over the hill but nevertheless useful). Rasheed is one of the most intelligent players in the NBA knows as well as anyone how to totally stymie the post games of guys like Gasol and Dwight Howard; his big game fortitude is as good as anyone's, and his time in Detroit showed us that he lives for moments like these. Now, the question is: will he consistently go to the post, make the Lakers bigs work on defense, and be willing to throw his body around on both ends to help shut down Bynum and Gasol and help Boston win the rebounding battle? Or will he be content to run from three point line to three point line and refuse to break a sweat when the team needs him most? Look even I know that he's still woefully out of shape and can't play for more than 20 minutes a game, but if he's willing to go all out during that time then Boston will have a great chance to win. Of course, if not.......well, should be interesting.
Slight edge: Lakers
The Wings
Paul Pierce vs. Ron Artest
Pierce has really picked up his play and was stellar in the past two rounds. He's back to using a variety of post ups, leaners, up and unders, fallaway jumpers, and relentless drives to carry the offense. That being said, this isn't as big of an advantage as it would appear to be. First off, Pierce looks a little gassed, presumably from all the injuries and wear/tear throughout his career (especially the last three seasons). Second, as critical as I've been of Ron Artest all season, this is the best possible matchup defensively. At this point in his career, Artest has lost a lot of his previous quickness and now struggles mightily guarding quicker wing players; don't ask him to guard the Wade/Ginobili/Evans types, and would have had a really tough matchup had he been forced to guard someone like Vince Carter. However, he's still great against the bigger wing players such as Carmelo, Durant, and (especially) pierce because he's so strong and can force those guys off their spots/out of position, hold his ground when they try to back down, and crowd them/play physically in order to make them uncomfortable. Also he has such big and strong yet such quick hands that he'll be able to force some turnovers and really bother Pierce on dribble drives. In short this is not the guy you want guarding Pierce if you're the Celtics. On the flip side, Ron's been terrible on offense; in retrospect I probably exaggerated how much of a ball stopper he was on offense - he hasn't been breaking plays or going for his own stats like I thought - but he does make some pretty dumb decisions (like that shot with about a minute to go in game 5 against Phoenix) and takes some ill-advised shots. More importantly, he simply isn't that great of a shooter; he misses shots that Trevor Ariza simply would have made, and because the Lakers have so many other options, Artest's strengths (post up game, ball-handling from the forward spot) don't get featured while his weaknesses (inconsistent shooting) get exposed because he's basically been designated to a spot up shooter role. He's going to have to either start making more shots or compensate by crashing the boards more on both ends. Otherwise Pierce will have to spend minimal energy on defense and will be able to dominate more offensively.
Ray Allen vs. Kobe Bryant
Kudos to Ray Allen for turning back the clock. After a fairly nondescript regular season in which he was missing shots that he usually makes and had me convinced that he was officially washed up, along came the playoffs. The guy is one of the all time devastating sharpshooters and big game closers. Kobe, however, has just been playing at a completely different level from anybody else on the planet these last two weeks - simply unstoppable when on top of his game. Phoenix simply had no answer for him, because even when they forced him into a contested long two he would just will himself to drain the most impossible shots. The fact that he spent the last two years developing a power-post up game speaks to his incredible work ethic. The main reason why he was stymied in the 2008 finals was because they put James Posey, a tall, long, and quick perimeter defender on him and he had no answer because he couldn't take Posey to the post. Now, although he's somewhat eroded physically and can't dominate athletically like he used to, from a skill standpoint he has an answer to almost any defender. Obviously Boston's the toughest defense he's faced all post-season, but don't expect him to simply drop off from the incredible level that he's playing at. Obviously Ray Allen will need all the help defense he can get from Garnett and Wallace, but the best thing Allen can do is be aggressive offensively and force Kobe to expend as much energy as possible on defense.
Tony Allen: Among the many Celtics surprises this post season was Tony Allen, who finally developed a basketball IQ above 50. He's still wildly inconsistent (hence Bill Simmons calling him trick or treat Tony), but he's finally learned how to play within his role of energy guy/defensive stopper. He's always been a good defensive player, but now he's finally figuring out how to not nullify his defensive contributions with boneheaded turnovers, missed layups, and poor offensive decisions. If he can provide quality minutes guarding Kobe without ruining the team's offense (thus saving Allen and Pierce's legs for crunch time) then that could swing the series dramatically.
Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic
Both of them had peak seasons in 2008 (which for my money was the best team of the Kobe-Gasol era), got fat contracts, and have done absolutely nothing since. Seriously, can you believe that Sasha is making 5 million per year when his only useful skill is flopping (and don't tell me he's some sort of defensive stopper; he's living off his 2008 rep on that end and can't guard anybody anymore)? These guys won't actually have any impact on any of the games, I wanted to call out anybody who before the season thought the Lakers actually had good bench.
Sizeable edge: Lakers
The Point Guards
Rajon rondo vs. Derek Fisher
I've given Fisher a ton of heat this year, and rightfully so; can't guard anybody, takes some terrible shots (and misses most of them); I will, however, give him credit where credit is due - he did do a better job than I expected on Steve Nash last round and is great at hitting those dagger shots that either kill the crowd/momentum or punctuate a Laker run and send the Staples crowd into a frenzy. With all that said, this is the most one-sided matchup since the first Karate Kid fight scene in which Johnny absolutely handed it to Daniel on the beach. Rondo has been an absolute killer in the playoffs; he wreaks havoc defensively and dominates the passing lanes; offensively he is so adept at either finishing with his patented swinging fake-pass or finding open teammates; normally you would back off a player with a questionable jumper, but Rondo has such good passing and court vision that you have to play up on him to cut off passing lanes, thus leaving you vulnerable to his dribble drives. If Rondo stops anywhere short of cremating Derek Fisher then the Lakers should consider themselves the luckiest team in the world.
Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown
Farmar is an easy one: he's just not that good and probably shouldn't be in any playoff rotation. Shannon Brown is actually kind of intriguing; he's wildly talented as a hyper-athletic hybrid guard that can defend, shoot, and attack the rim. However, now I'm seeing why people were saying that he's like a reliever that looks good over one or two innings but gets exposed the longer he's out there. If you play Brown too long he'll start losing focus, turning it over, and getting really wild/careless. So obviously he probably shouldn't be starting (yet), but he should get a lot of minutes as Fisher's backup.
Nate Robinson: Oh!!! Kryptonate!!! I wasn't prepared to write about him after he barely played any minutes during the regular season for the Celtics. But then he pulled out that Game 6 performance, and now maybe, just maybe, he'll be the energizer bunny that brings Boston the trophy. Obviously you can't play Nate too many minutes or else he'll get exposed defensively, but I love the idea of bringing him in for 8-12 minutes a game to energize the offense, attack the rim, and try to draw fouls/put the Lakers on their heels, especially against L.A.'s putrid stable of point guards. It's entirely possible, if not probable, that he won't see a single minute, but I think Doc should seriously consider deploying him as a mismatch weapon against this Laker backcourt. I mean, how the hell is L.A. ever going to defend a NateRob-Rondo tag team without making Kobe expend valuable energy?
Big Edge: Celtics
The Extras
The Benches: Obviously I've already gone through a lot of players on both benches, but here's my take on both units as a whole: while the Celtics bench certainly isn't a group of world beaters, at least they have guys like Robinson, Tony Allen, Rasheed, and Glenn Davis (tough as nails, playoff-proven interior defender and rebounder) who can provide a spark and give the Celtics some flexibility in terms of style and matchups. Other than Odom (who I'd say is pretty much a starter anyways since he gets all the crunch time minutes over Bynum) and to a certain extent Shannon Brown, Phil Jackson has virtually nothing to work with on his second unit. If I were Phil I would consider giving some run to Josh Powell, a guy who always plays hard and can stick the midrange jumper. True basketball fans know that the Lakers have had pathetic depth all season, culminating in the beatdown that Phoenix's reserves laid on their Los Angeles counterparts last series, and in that respect they're kinda lucky that they didn't have to face an 11-deep Magic team that would have decimated LA's second unit.
Edge: Celtics
Coaching: I have to give props to Doc Rivers, a fantastic offensive coach who is great at getting the team to execute his 1-4 sets. Obviously defense isn't his strong suit, but he understands the importance of that end of the floor and is smart enough to let Thibodeau run that end. Doc's become better with his rotations and tactics; this isn't as one-sided as most people assume (and keep in mind that Rivers definitely won the coaching chess match in the '08 finals). Obviously Jackson is up there with Auerbach, Daly, Riley, Sloan, Popovich, etc. among the greatest coaches ever and is the master at managing his team's personalities, getting everyone (including stars with huge egos) to buy in to the team concept, and making game to game adjustments. Just know that LA's coaching advantage isn't as big as you would think, especially considering that Boston has an assistant (Thibodeau) who is essentially another head coach (an offer for which he is long overdue).
Edge: Lakers
The Home Courts: Laker crowds are horrible in the regular season because all the real fans get priced out and as a result the stands are filled with either celebs who are more interested in being seen on the scene than the actual game, or bandwagon Laker fans who endlessly deify their players beyond the point of absurdity and don't actually know anything about basketball. However, the Spring Crowds at Staples are a different breed; they know how to create an environment that's tense for the road team, encouraging for the Lake Show; they know exactly when to cheer and how to push their players to new heights; they don't need dumb PA guys or jumbotrons to know what to do (I'm looking right at you, Atlanta Hawks "fans"). Obviously Boston's crowds will be their usual frenetic and intimidating selves. I still wish these games were being held in the legendary Boston Garden and Los Angeles Forum rather than these cheap Corporate Sponsored arenas; Lengendary Sports venues like the Old Soldier Field, Yankee Stadium, Wrigley Field, Fenway Park, and Madison Square Garden push sporting events there to new levels. Now that the Boston Garden, L.A. Forum, and the Alamodome are gone, it looks like the Palace of Auburn Hills in Detroit is our only historic stadium that's left; the name isn't tainted by any corporate blood, and this is the place where three legendary title teams (Isaiah's Pistons back to back titles as well as Larry Brown's 2004 wrecking crew) cemented their places in history; where Big Shot Bob put the exclamation point on a career of coming up big when it mattered most; where the most epic brawl in sports history unfolded; where Lebron delivered the best individual performance of this decade of NBA Basketball and officially announced his arrival among the pantheon of greats (as for where he'll land among those greats, we'll tackle that in a couple of weeks). That's it - the only truly historic NBA arena we have. OK enough ranting, point is these crowds do know what they're doing.
slight edge: Celtics
The Bottom Line
There are a million different ways that this series could tip in the Celtics favor. Kevin Garnett could pull out the time machine and immasculate Gasol like he used to do with regularity when his knees were good. Odom could completely melt and deprive the Lakers of some of their matchup advantages. Kobe could come back down to earth. Rondo could see the advantages he has against Fisher, put the team on his back, and singlehandedly eviscerate L.A. Hell, even 'Sheed could give us a throwback performance and school Gasol and Bynum for one last time. This WILL be a close series. I just can't pick against L.A. given how well Kobe is playing right now. When the Lakers are completely zoned only Orlando has the capability to match them from a basketball standpoint, and unlike the Magic the Lakers have the requisite toughness to not wilt against Boston and allow that high skill level to display itself. If Gasol and Odom come to play and hold their own then the Lakers are adding another banner.
The verdict: Lakers in 7
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