Monday, December 13, 2010

2011 NFL Draft: Overrated/Underrated Prospects, Volume 1

Overrated: Nathan Enderle, QB, Idaho
I don't know why, but every year, some QB from a small school is hyped up on all the draft watches, and this year is Enderle's turn at bat. Yeah, he's big, his arm is pretty good, and he plays a Pro-Style offense, so the attention isn't completely un-merited. I was skeptical right out of the gates, and after watching him play against Boise State, my skepticism was justified. He looked completely lost, he was making incredibly poor decisions, and his accuracy was spotty at best. And it wasn't after some disheartening injury or some bad play that got in his head; he looked beat from the first snap. Yes, Boise State is a damn good defense, arguably the best in college football, but if you're rated the #5 QB on multiple draft sites, you have to produce, or at least prevent a meltdown.

Underrated: Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech
I like to believe that racism isn't an issue in the NFL anymore, but then cases like this pop up that bring me back to the reality of football. I just don't get why a guy like Tyrod Taylor is rated so poorly on so many draft sites. Yes, my man crush with T-Mobile is officially documented due to my last post, but how can you not like the guy? He's one of the most exciting players to watch in college, and the fact that V.Tech has been on ESPN the last half of the season has been an absolute delight. Taylor puts nice zip on the ball, he can make all the throws, and he's learned a lot over the last 4 years. He's already learned one of the toughest lessons rookie QBs face, that throwing the ball away is sometimes the best play. If he knows that the play isn't salvagable, he will throw it away. But what makes him so electrifying is his ability to make a play out of seemingly nothing, which brings me to his scrambling. He may not be the fastest or the strongest runner, but make no mistake, he is the best scrambler in all of college football. He keeps his eyes downfield all the time, and his main asset in his scrambling isn't his speed, but his elusiveness, which will translate to the NFL. This ability to scramble is why you don't see him throw it away often, because he knows he can salvage almost any play at the college level. But, there are reasons why people don't like him. Main reason: his height. At 6'1, his height could be a concern, but he doesn't have a low release so I don't think it will be much of an issue unless he's being blocked by 5 clones of Phil Loadholt. Another issue I've noticed is that he doesn't really throw to his receivers until they break free from coverage, which is him trying to not turn the ball over. A legitimate issue that many QB prospects face, but a correctable one.

Overrated: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Yes, he's putting up stats right now. Yes, he's winning in God's only conference, the SEC. Yes, he's 6'7 and has an absolute cannon for an arm. But be cautious, my children, for all of these things a quarterback does not make. It was not even 4 years ago that one Jamarcus Russell filled all of these requirements. Am I saying Mallett is the next Russell? No. Am I saying people need to stop calling him a first round quarterback? Yes. His accuracy is very spotty; I've never seen a collective group of receivers make so many circus catches. And, from what I hear and read, he also has character concerns. So if people are even thinking that he's going to the Cardinals, especially after Leinart's motivation issues, they need to think again. Also he imploded in the second half against Alabama, and that never looks too good, even if it's only in the first 5 weeks of the season. But, Arkansas will probably beat Ohio State, Mallett will throw a bunch of 80 yard bombs at the combine, run a 5.3, and get drafted by a team that will find out that he's just not really that good. For his sake, and for the sake of variety at the quarterback position in the NFL, I hope I'm wrong.

Underrated: Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
I like to watch Boise State, as should anyone. They're the most exciting team to watch in college, aside from Oregon and Auburn. This blog is definitely Boise State-friendly, but there's no special treatment here. As a draft guy, I try and scout guys when I watch games. And between Kellen Moore, Austin Pettis, Titus Young, Jerron Johnson and Winston Venable, there's a lot to scout for during Broncos games. As such, I try to take a more organic approach when watching this team, so I'm not just watching one guy the entire game. Well, all these guys made plays, it's why their names are all over the mocks. But one guy on the Broncos really started to surprise me with his playmaking abilities, and that was Doug Martin. He seems to me like a Chester Taylor-type in the NFL. He runs hard, has decent hands, decent speed and runs like a bull. He just does everything pretty well, which you love to have in a #2 back in the NFL. And if you can get a good #2 in the 7th round or even as an undrafted free agent, you have to snatch him up before a team like the Patriots do, he's a great value guy.

Overrated: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
If you can't tell already, I look into this draft stuff a lot. In advance. All the time. Literally, every day. It's an odd affinity of mine, as my favorite team, the Giants, have no real problem drafting, and have no real needs in the draft. I guess I like to see how the bad teams will do. I mean, I've been following this draft stuff for so long that I'd say I'm also a Lions fan at this point. But in all of my years of viewing countless mock drafts and draft bios, there's one thing I've never seen before this year: Anthony Castonzo. Seriously, when the hell did people just annoint this guy a first rounder. I mean, the tackle class can't be that weak this year, can it? I haven't seen a single second of game tape on this guy, so he may be a good player for all I know. But the fact that I've never heard of him leads me to be very suspicious. I mean, there are lots of mid-late round draft steals I've never heard of before that draft year, which is to be expected; it's why they're steals, because they're unknown. But never hearing of the top tackle in the draft??? That just can't end well. And from what I read, he might not even be able to play left tackle! I think this is a case of lazy mock drafting, where one high-profile mock draft labeled him a first round pick and everyone else just ran with it. Either way, until I see film of him, I will continue to be skeptical.

Underrated: Owen Marecic, FB, Stanford
If you watched the Oregon/Stanford game, you might have heard of the fullback/linebacker who played both ways for just about the whole game. Well, his name is Owen Marecic and he's a flat-out beast. In this day and age, to play both ways is insane, especially in (arguably) the best conference in all of college football. You don't become a modern-day iron man in the PAC-10 on accident. He's primarily a fullback, but if I'm an NFL coach, I'll find a way to get him on the field. Fullback, some defensive snaps, special teams. Football is a game of toughness, and iron men are the epitomy of that. And on top of that, he's a damn good football player. He's got ideal size and speed for a fullback, and he's got fantastic hands for any back, let alone a fullback. In the Oregon game, Luck threw a fade pass to him and he almost made it! If Andrew Luck has enough trust in him to throw him a fade route, well then so do I.

0 comments: